From pump to shelf: how fuel prices are felt

Geopolitical tensions are pushing prices up, but the impact on products remains, for now, under control.

Behind every product that reaches the table there is an invisible route: kilometers, fuel and logistics. And when the price of fuel rises suddenly, this route becomes more expensive. The current context, marked by tensions around Iran and risks in the Strait of Hormuz, brings the oil market back into a volatile zone, with direct and rapid effects on the economy — including in Romania.

A new wave of price increases, at an accelerated pace

The price of fuel exceeded the threshold of 10 lei/liter, marking one of the fastest increases in recent years — over 2.2 lei/liter in about 60 days.

This development is not just a market fluctuation, but a reaction to geopolitical uncertainty. In a globally interconnected system, any voltage at a strategic point propagates rapidly, and energy remains one of the most sensitive variables.

Transport, the first link affected

For the logistics industry, the impact is immediate. “Similar to the pandemic, the market is reacting to uncertainty, but the current speed of propagation is much higher. In the technical structure of transport costs in the logistics industry, fuel is the dominant component. That is why the increase of over 2 lei per liter since the beginning of the year (an increase of almost 30%), has a great impact on operational costs and requires quick reactions from the industry, so that the rates remain aligned with the reality of the market”, explains Cătălina Zamfir, International Transport Manager at Raben Romania.

Fuel accounts for around 35% of the total cost of road transport, making it a decisive factor for operational stability.

Quick reactions in a volatile market

To maintain balance, transport companies have adopted measures specific to periods of volatility:

• Adjustment of tariffs according to actual costs
• Switching to weekly indexing instead of monthly or quarterly indexing
• updating the calculation formulas to reflect the current fuel price

These mechanisms are not exceptions, but necessary tools to maintain consistency between costs and services.

How much does the price increase actually reach in the glass?

Although the impact on carriers is direct, the effects on final prices are more moderate.

Shipping costs can increase by 8–15%, but they represent on average only 5–10% of the price of a product.

A simple example: for a 20 lei product, where transport represents 8% (1.6 lei), a 12% increase in the transport cost would add about 0.19 lei. The final price would thus reach about 20.19 lei.

“This calculation shows that a steep increase in fuel prices does not justify, by itself, substantial increases in the prices of products on the shelf. If larger increases occur, they are rather explained by other factors, such as energy, raw materials or the operating costs of producers,” emphasizes Cătălina Zamfir.